A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
